A lot of my friends are having kids right now. Over the weekend, we had some friends over for dinner. One of them brought his eight-year-old daughter. She loves animals, and was great with all our dogs and horses, but we ended the night exhausted! Explaining the rules, keeping a watchful eye over the bigger dogs, reminding her to use her inside voice... I'm still tired from the visit.

And I can't begin to imagine how much harder it would be with two kids. Especially with the arguments, trying to decide who's right and who needs a time-out.

 As the debt ceiling debate heats up, President Obama claims most Americans are OK with higher taxes. Are you?

As the U.S. debt ceiling deadline moves closer, the bond market takes it in stride. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note trades within spitting distance of eight-month highs.

Investors seem confident a deal will get done, if only because the consequences for a miss would be so dire. Republicans and Democrats are playing a fierce game of "chicken" -- driving their cars straight toward each other at full speed -- but one or both will swerve at the last second.

And while the bond market itself is relaxed, the rhetoric is getting heated. From TheHill.com (emphasis mine):

 The U.S. is in a very scary position right now... We have a real chance of defaulting on our debt. The government is still arguing over what to do about the debt ceiling, and if they can't find a solution we're looking at an economic meltdown.

The rating agencies are starting to catch on.

Moody's warned yesterday that it could downgrade the U.S.'s credit rating if Congress and the president couldn't reach an agreement. It would probably change the country's AAA rating to AA. Standard and Poor's would make a bigger change -- downgrading the U.S. from AAA to D.

 How will the never-ending eurozone crisis finally end? All roads lead to the printing press...

Recently, I have said, "watch the bond market." The action in U.S. Treasury bonds makes for a good risk barometer. If bond prices rise and yields fall, that means "risk off" is back on the menu.

That is what happened this week. The yield on the 10-year note has fallen back below 3%. (When yields are falling, bond prices are rising.)

The big spike in yield came as markets soared in the final week of June. That was the burst of stock market euphoria coupled with a "problem solved" verdict for Greece and two pieces of positive manufacturing data from the U.S.