Dow Theory suggests caution…could be dollar bullish

I am a little hazy this morning after a long flight back to south Florida last night from a trip to Vancouver this weekend. But it was worth it.

I spoke at an investment conference sponsored by Michael Campbell’s Money Talks radio. The Money Talks team is a great bunch of people. Michael Campbell heads it up, and does a radio program every Saturday morning. I urge you to listen in, as Mike’s insights into trading, investing, and global macro economic analysis are about as good as it gets; and he always has interesting guests that don’t pull punches, and don’t talk down to listeners—and that is reflected by the quality of the people who attend Michael’s events.

alt

What Happens in Europe Stays in Europe ...

There’s a very good and little‐known movie starring Anthony Hopkins. The title: World’s Fastest Indian. It’s about a New Zealand man who made it his life’s goal to break the land speed record on his motorcycle. It’s been called a “feel‐good” story.

Kind of like this latest rally in risk.

alt

So Long to Netshitenzhe AND Manuel?

You can look at crude oil lately; or you can look at the Reuters-Jefferies CRB Index. Either way you’re probably going to come away with the idea that commodity prices have been rising. Here’s a chart of the CRB:

alt

Mr. King Comes Clean and the Market Seems to Like It

Mervyn King delivered a speech yesterday on banking reform, and the market seemed to like it—as the pound has surged:

There is no indication monetary policy is changing anytime soon i.e. no one expects a hike in interest rates or change to quantitative easing from the Bank of England. Yet the pound surged on Mr. King’s speech.

alt

Does this bring out the optimist in you?

Let me just run through some timely market developments and when I’m finished I want you to tell me how you perceive the markets; though it’s rather obvious how the consensus is feeling ...

I’ll start with a headline that your average stock investor is happy to see: “World stocks hit new 12-month high; dollar weak” – Reuters. That’s global investing in a nutshell these days.

alt