A Potential Premise that Fools the Crowd Big Time!

Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the country’s economic recovery and job creation hinge on banks taking more risk and restoring the flow of credit to businesses.

“The big risk we face now is that banks are going to overcorrect and not take enough risk,” Geithner said in an interview today on NBC’s “Meet the Press” program. “We need them to take a chance again on the American economy. That’s going to be important to recovery.”

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Things that still frighten us on Halloween Eve

We are quite happy to see the IMF upgraded Asian growth. We were pleasantly surprised with the better than expected GDP report yesterday. We are looking forward to eating belling busting barrels of candy tomorrow. But there are still a few items that frighten us when we do our stream of consciousness thing:

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Will Stronger US GDP Put the Heat Back on the Dollar?

In Florida we have two seasons: summer and not-summer. And even though the leaves don’t really change colors, the ocean temperature hasn’t budged and we still need our central air conditioners as we inch toward November, we think we can still feel a change happening.

Granted, we’ve had a couple false alarms this month as we were able to enjoy being outside in the middle of the day; but we were quickly thrown back indoors when the summer heat returned. Still, it seems we’re on the edge of getting consistently milder weather. And we look forward to it.

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Currencies and Straight Jackets

Finally some good flows from the crisis—lower beer prices:

McGee reduced the price for a beer this month to 3.50 euros ($5.18) at his hostelries after the pound’s 12 percent drop against the euro in the past year led customers from the U.K. province of Northern Ireland to stay home.

“’We can’t devalue, but our neighbor can and has, and left us high and dry,’ he said, adding sterling is a ‘huge’ problem. ‘You’ve got to try and keep the Northerners coming.’

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The Eurozone Economy is Going to Zero

Would you think I was crazy if I said I am 100% certain the value of the Eurozone economy would eventually fall to zero?

What about if you read my Currency Currents from last Friday, 23 October 2009? In it I laid out several pieces of information that most definitely point to an imminent flat-line for the EZ, no?

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