Category: Currency Currents

Weak dollar good or bad…depends on your time frame I guess

Richard Berner is an economist from Morgan Stanley—I think he is very good. He made these comments in a research note recently regarding the US dollar [our emphasis]:

“The dollar's recent slide is only reversing a substantial rise that began in mid-2008; on a broad, trade-weighted basis the dollar is actually 8% stronger than it was at that time and now stands about where it was two years ago. Moreover, the depreciation has been orderly and has been accompanied by falling, not rising, risk premiums. And one key driver - the US current account deficit, which is a measure of US external financing needs - has shrunk to less than 3% of GDP, or half its peak value.

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