- Published: 26 June 2011
- Written by Investor Ideas
Solar Stocks and Market Commentary with J Peter Lynch
Point Roberts, South Salem, New York - June 27, 2011 www.Investorideas.com, a leader in cleantech stock research, releases a new solar stocks commentary on annual performance from contributor, J. Peter Lynch for June 27th.
Solar Stocks Commentary with J Peter Lynch - Read other articles, Exclusively for InvestorIdeas.com and Renewableenergystocks.com: http://www.renewableenergystocks.com/PL/ See Peter's technical solar stocks review: http://www.investorideas.com/PL/Solar-Stocks-Review.asp
Solar Portfolio Significantly Outperforms General Market in 2010 and 2011
J Peter Lynch
Stock Stocks and Portfolio Update 6-27-2011
As a result of the much more volatile market and continued pressure on solar stocks last month sold two of the remaining three positions in our solar stock portfolio.
These sales leave the remaining portfolio with only the original 1,000 shares of GT Solar (SOLR) from the original 7 solar stocks we started with on January 2 2010.
Summary Performance Update
The market performance of solar stocks in the first half of 2011 has been terrible. Since the beginning of 2011 (year to date -YTD) they have dramatically underperformed the markets in general:
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Solar Stocks YTD - down 17.18% on average
Markets in General**YTD - up 1.31% on average
Our Solar Portfolio - up 18% (12.28% realized on sales)
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As I have said many times in the past this current market continues to stay in a higher risk area and the longer it says in this area the more likely we will see at least a larger short term correction � we have already had a roughly 6% correction to date. Meanwhile solar stocks have been underperforming the general markets since the beginning of 2010 and have NOT been a profitable place to be in general. Whereas our original �solar seven� portfolio which constituted our original portfolio starting in the beginning of 2010 had an annual return of 42.94% with ZERO changes made to the portfolio.
Solar Seven 2010 +42.94%
All Solar PV Stocks 2010 -14.60%
Major Indexes Average +13.87%
Solar Portfolio Selection Criteria
Back in the beginning of 2010 I explained that we were rating all of our solar stocks and there were seven stocks that met my criteria - later named - "The Solar Seven&" that were the strongest stocks in the industry. My rating system to select the "strongest&" stocks is a proprietary combination of various relative strength measures, technical measures and some fundamental components.
What can we learn from this amazing performance in a terrible solar market?
What we can learn is that there are always stocks going up somewhere, even in a terrible market and if you select the "strongest&" stocks in a given market segment you will, on average, do quite well.
Even if, the strongest stocks are all umbrella companies and we are in a drought - regardless of what you "think&" you know or "think&" should be - always remember that "what is, is&" and always buy the strongest stocks in a sector or market. You may not always know "why&" something happens, but you will, on average, do much better than most investors and most likely better than the market.
It is possible today with all the information that is available at every moment (much of which is NOT well thought out) to actually over analyze a situation and because there is so much data available it can lead to "analysis paralysis&". Sometimes it is easier and more profitable to not think as much and follow simply "what is&". Sounds easy, but in reality it is very difficult.
As Yogi Berra once said, "you can't hit and think at the same time&" - sounds silly but it may be true.
Background Notes
Keep in mind that there are two basic types of equity (stock) analysis. The following is a brief description of each and its primary purpose:
Fundamental Analysis - this is the analysis of the fundamental financial condition of the company to identify which stocks are stocks you may want to buy when the timing is right. This form of analysis will give you NO indication of the best time to buy the stock.
Technical Analysis - this form of analysis will tell you "when&" to buy a stock. It will do this by showing you (in chart format) the basic interaction of supply and demand and when the two change and shift which will indicate a time to buy or a time to sell.
Mr. Lynch has worked, for 34 years as a Wall Street security analyst, an independent security analyst an investment banker and private investor in small emerging technology companies. He has been actively involved in following developments in the renewable energy sector since 1977 and is regarded as an expert in this field. He was the contributing editor for 17 years to the Photovoltaic Insider Report, the leading publication in PV that was directed at industrial subscribers, such as major energy companies, utilities and governments around the world. He is currently a private investor and advisor to a number of companies. He can be reached via e-mail at: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. Please visit his website for the promotion of solar energy - www.sunseries.net
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