- Published: 15 May 2011
- Written by Investor Ideas
Solar Stocks Commentary with J Peter Lynch - Read other articles, Exclusively for InvestorIdeas.com and Renewableenergystocks.com: http://www.renewableenergystocks.com/PL/ See Peter's technical solar stocks review: http://www.investorideas.com/PL/Solar-Stocks-Review.asp
Solar Stocks Review - Monday 3-21-2011 - J Peter Lynch
Summary
At this time the general market continues to stay in a higher risk zone. This does not mean that you cannot make money but that most of the money has usually been made at this stage. However, it is not uncommon for the market to stay in a higher risk zone for many months.
As a result, an investor has to be more cautious and take some more defensive actions. For example, sell stocks in your portfolio that are showing weakening relative strength to the market, tighten up your stop loss sell points and if you are more sophisticated, buy protective puts to hedge yourself.
However, the market has been climbing a "wall of worry" for a long time now, volatility has dramatically increased and the market has moved into its traditionally unfavorable season - May thru September approximately - additional reasons for caution.
Remember the two key rules from the legendary investor Warren Buffet on how to make money in the stock market:
- Never lose money*
- Never forget rule #1
*What Buffet really means by "never lose money" is really to cut your losses short (minimize your losses) and let your winners run as long as they are technically strong (maximize your return).
Individual Stock Comments and Comments on our Solar Portfolio
Most of the stock s in the solar sector have fallen further behind the general market and have continued to weaken. Below are the latest comments on the 3 stocks remaining in our Solar Portfolio and the number of shares of each stock still held in the portfolio.
To date the portfolio is up approximately double the major industry averages 15% vs 7.25%.
JKS (500 shares) - Stock has recently showed strength and has given a new short term buy signal at $28.50. Falling below $25.50 would generate at sell signal for the remaining ½ of the position.
SOLR (1,000 shares) - Consistently the strongest solar stock and has given a short term buy signal at $11.50, it is the only stock in the portfolio that we have not sold any of our initial position of 1,000 shares.
TSL (500 shares) - weakest of the group, a move to $25.50 generated a sell of ½ of our position. A further move down to $25.00 would generate a sell signal on the balance of this position.
Looking at the table below you will see that both JKS and SOLR are the only major stocks that are significantly above both their 50 Day and 200 day moving averages**. With the exception of Sunpower Corp. (SPWRA) which received a recent offer for control of the company by the French oil company TOTAL.
**Remember that the 50 day MA is a short term indicator of technical strength and the 200 day MA is a long term indicator of strength. The optimal position for a stock to be in is ABOVE both these moving averages.
US Photovoltaic Related Companies as of the close on 5-13-2011
Symbol Name Recent Price 50 Day MA 200 Day MA ASTI Ascent Solar Technologies, Inc. 1.56 2.107 3.059 CSIQ Canadian Solar Inc. 9.68 10.802 13.017 CSUN China Sunergy Company Ltd. 3.3 3.873 4.276 DSTI DayStar Technologies Inc. 0.79 0.89 1.523 EMKR EMCORE Corporation 2.48 2.428 1.584 ENER Energy Conversion Devices 1.57 2.2 3.988 ESLR Evergreen Solar, Inc. 1.08 1.535 3.322 FSLR First Solar, Inc. 125.65 143.077 140.584 HSOL Hanwa Solar 5.91 7.053 9.175 JASO JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd 6.16 6.579 7.237 JKS JinkoSolar Holding Co. 28.5 25.377 26.161 LDK LDK Solar Company Ltd. 9.6 11.324 10.77 RSOL Real Goods Solar, Inc. 2.53 2.509 2.731 SOL ReneSola, Ltd. 8.25 9.126 9.973 SOLR GT Solar International Inc 11.36 10.441 9.288 SPIR Spire Corporation 4.28 4.366 4.848 SPWRA Sunpower Corporation 21.23 17.295 14.483 STP Suntech Power Holdings 8.52 8.926 8.827 TSL Trina Solar Limited 25.35 27.534 26.37 WEST Akeena Solar, Inc. 1.52 1.929 2.187 WFR MEMC Electronic Materials, Inc. 11.01 12.054 11.912 YGE Yingli Green Energy 10.66 11.791 11.523
Background Notes
Keep in mind that there are two basic types of equity (stock) analysis. Below is a brief description of each and its primary purpose:
Fundamental Analysis - this is the analysis of the fundamental financial condition of the company to identify which stocks are stocks you may want to buy when the timing is right. This form of analysis will give you NO indication of the best time to buy the stock.
Technical Analysis - this form of analysis will tell you "when" to buy a stock. It will do this by showing you (in chart format) the basic interaction of supply and demand and when the two change and shift which will indicate a time to buy or a time to sell.
Mr. Lynch has worked, for 34 years as a Wall Street security analyst, an independent security analyst an investment banker and private investor in small emerging technology companies. He has been actively involved in following developments in the renewable energy sector since 1977 and is regarded as an expert in this field. He was the contributing editor for 17 years to the Photovoltaic Insider Report, the leading publication in PV that was directed at industrial subscribers, such as major energy companies, utilities and governments around the world. He is currently a private investor and advisor to a number of companies. He can be reached via e-mail at: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. Please visit his website for the promotion of solar energy - www.sunseries.net
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