Rising relative yield differential is good for the dollar

Last Friday I penned Growth and inflation? Key to our 10 reasons the dollar has bottomed. I hope you believe me now. One of the key points to the dollar move was “Carry trade idea history.” History we think because the Fed may surprise on the interest rate front; we expect US interest rates on the front end of the curve to exceed anything Japan has to offer soon. In that case, the Japanese yen once again inherits the carry trade mantle. It is one reason why we are bearish on the yen going forward and why our Members are positioned for such a move.