Oh the nasty “tail” risk and lending “reflexivity”…

Gosh, it was looking so good. All those buildings, fancy shaped islands, money, and oil wealth. Who would’ve thunk it? Well, not the credit analysts, we know that now.

Nov. 27 (Bloomberg): “One cannot rule out -- as a tail risk -- a case where this would escalate into a major sovereign default problem, which would then resonate across global emerging markets in the same way that Argentina did in the early 2000s or Russia in the late 1990s,” Bank of America strategists Benoit Anne and Daniel Tenengauzer wrote in a report.