Jobs Friday – Crap shoot of expectations

This is that time when we try to evaluate the expectations about the expectations, i.e. will the jobless number guess prove too low, high, or be about right. This morning it seems the number is supposed to come in worse than expected. And according to headlines this morning, that is why the dollar is lower. So one could say the expectation of the expectation is already in the price. But of course, that is no help whatsoever.

Why? Well the worse the news has been, the better it has been for the dollar on the risk aversion trade. So, the fall in the dollar this morning should reflect a jobs number that will come in better than expected, i.e. the risk appetite trade back in play. So why is worse than expected jobs supporting the dollar according to the headline writers? Who knows?