Category: FX Recommends

While the cable was under pressure, UK Q3 GDP came last Friday to show growth decelerating to 0.5% q/q as expected following growth by 0.7% in the second quarter with yearly expansion by 2.3%, after 2.4% in the second quarter.

The cable downside momentum has increased again last week following BOE's chief Mark Carney's testimony about the inflation in front of the parliament treasuries committee.

Carney has shown that there is hope for rising inflation in UK with improving of the productivity but he did not hide his worries about the consuming spending when the MPC to start hiking the interest rate.

 From another side, The Chief Economist and the Executive Director of Monetary Analysis and Statistics at BOE Andy Haldane indicated in his annual report to the lawmakers that the balance of risks around growth and inflation are still skewed materially to the downside adding that the policy is in need to be poised to move in either direction giving leeway for easing probability.

Andrew Haldane has signaled previously that there is a possibility of watching lower interest rate for propping the inflation up in UK on BOE commitment, as the inflation rate has become far below its yearly 2% target.

UK CPI has fallen yearly in September and October by 0.1% to show the weakest inflation pressure since UK CPI counting beginning in 1989, while BOE's yearly inflation target is 2% and it has not been seen since December 2014.

This current weak inflation pressure in UK is due to the massive falling of the energy prices which has started since the middle of last year and also due to the sterling strength comparing to the single currency.

As the ECB is still looking in easing cycle, while BOE was looking the closer to follow the Fed in raising rates and even after last week dovish inflation quarterly report, it is still looking so.

Now, the cable is under pressure, as Carney's testimony about the current low inflation level could show lagging in taking such tightening step behind the Fed which is widely expected now to start hiking the interest rate by the end of this year.

GBPUSD has been exposed to the same repeated downside momentum, after forming a new lower high at 1.5336.

The cable could hardly hold above its previous supporting level at 1.5027 by the end of last week protecting 1.50 psychological level quickly.

The cable is now moving below its hourly 50-SMA, its hourly 100-SMA and also its hourly 200-SMA with continued existence well below its daily 50-SMA, 100-SMA and 200-SMA.

GBPUSD is now in its day number 18 of continued being below its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading today 1.5279.

The pair is having its daily RSI-14 in the neutral area but close to the oversold area below 30 reading now 37.0311.

While GBPUSD daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in the oversold region below 20 reading 10.564 and also its signal line which is reading 15.802.

·                     S1: 1.5027

·                     S2: 1.50

·                     S3: 1.4960

·                     R1: 1.5156

·                     R2: 1.5336

·                     R3: 1.5509

Have a good day

Kind Regards

FX Market Strategist

Walid Salah El Din

Mob: +20 12 2465 9143

E-Mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.



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