The British pound could get rid off the pressure of the recent disappointing release of May retail sales which were expected to ease monthly to .4% from .9% in April and yearly to -.1% from 2.6% in April but they have slumped by .6% monthly and 1.6% yearly. The cable lost about 2.5 figures but it could find support again at 1.6200 area. The cable could rally to 1.65 by the end of the week but it could be sustained closing above this level which looked as a good chance to sell it again with no serious change of the current market sentiment toward it. The main resistance area currently is between 1.662 whereas it has fallen on 11th of this month and 1.666 whereas it has fallen on 3rd of this month and the way down is expected to meet an intermediate support at 1.6375 then the main support level currently at 1.62 level and the breaking of it can lead to a test of the psychological level at 1.6 and the breaking of it can expose the cable recent main low at 1.58 to be tested again as a support.

The single currency has found support recently from the optimistic figures of the Germane ZEW of June which surged to 44.8 from 35 in May while the current conditions figure improved to -89 from -93 in May which delighted the pressure on the single currency helping it to stand above 1.38 versus the greenback and we are waiting this week for very important new data from the Euro zone to be watched. By God's Will, We have today the germane IFO of June which is expected to be 85 and tomorrow we have the flash reading of June PMI manufacturing index which is expected to get better to 40 from 39.6 and PMI services index of this same month which is expected to be 45.6 from 45.2 in May. We have also EU HICP preliminary release of June which was down monthly by .1% in May and unchanged y/y and the ECB president Mr. Trichet has indicated in his recent press conference after the ECB decision to keep the interest rate unchanged at 1% on the 4th of this month that the ECB is expecting the inflation to be from 0.1% to 0.5% and if we have had negative rates this week this can dampen the single currency.

The gold eased last week with the easing of commodities and energy prices amid the correction of the equities market. After sliding from 960 and closing below it for 2 consecutive weeks. The gold has come under  further technical pressure to decline below 942.8$ reaching 925.88$ last week failing to be sustained again above 940$ resistance and the falling of  May US CPI Index by 1.3% y/y broadly and the core figure excluding the food and energy decreasing to 1.8% y/y could cap it last week from breaking above it again as the market was waiting for a slide by just .9% after April slide by .7% broadly and was waiting for the core to be as the same as April at 1.9%. The data shows that the inflation pressure is still tamed negatively impacted by the recessionary pressure unflattering of the recent increases of the commodities and energy prices which pushed the oil barrel above 70$.

Best wishes

FX Consultant

Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
http://www.fx-recommends.com