The european stock markets could keep its gains before today holidays while the US equity market has closed in the red tritorry giving back its previous gains which drived the dow during yesterday session to 9300 before closing at 8168 losing 21 points. The Fed declaring that the pace of the contraction is getting slower has been confirmed by Chicago PMI index which came up to 40.1 in April from 31.4 in March and By God's Will, we wait today for the release of US ISM manfacturing index of April which is expected to improve to 38 from 36.3 in March. A number above 50 means a contraction and below 50 means a contraction.

These data are important to this current market sentiment and any disappointing figure can make a shock to the equity market after these recent bullish signs which put pressure on the greenback in the beginning of yesterday trading on optimism that there can be a recovery closer than what was expected which increased the investors risk apitite after this current slowing of contraction.

Yesterday, The Fed has kept the interest rate unchanged with no new taken easing or stimulation steps of its adopted quantitive easing policy. The greenback has found some support from this fed repeating of its pledges to buy 1.25 trillion of the MBS and 300 billion of long term treasuries notes with no more announcement of injecting more funds which dragged the gold down from above 900$ to 893$ after the assessment which referred to a persisting of the prices at the current low level . The worries of suppling more US dollars were weighing on the greenback recently and the unchanged decision by the Fed could enable it to drag the gold price from above 900$ before it to 893 after it and Fed evaluation of the probability of a longer time of low prices could add today to the gold woes beside the the risk apitie returning to the investors in spite of the dispointing QI US GDP figure which came lower than the market expectations of -5% y/y at -6.1%. The shrinking of the first quarter came with a broadly  increasing of the price deflator by 2.9%.

We have had seen recently an improving of the consuming pace as US April US Consumer Confidence index which was expected to go up to 29.5 from 26 in March and it has come better than expected at 39.2 following the preliminary release of April University of Michigan Confidence index which came which came better than the market expectations of 58.5 at 61.9 and today we wait to see the final reading of it which is expected to be again 61.9.

The USDJPY could break 97 finally after the Fed decision triggering stop loss orders pushed it up to 97.96 directly after the decision and the improving the market sentiment could add to these gains. The Japanese always gets use of the unwinding of the carry trades at the times of the risk aversion and mistrust in the holding assets and investing as its very low interest rate levels which reside currently at just .1%. The Japanese PMI of April has come at 41.4 from 33.8 in March showing an actual slower pace of contraction too and March Industrial Production Preliminary yearly release has come at -34.2% which is better than the market expectations of a declining by 34.7% after Feb declining by 38.4%as the monthly figure has shown a positive rate this time by 1.6% from -.8% in Feb. the fall of March Overall National CPI to -.3% from just -.1% in Feb and the declining of April Overall Tokyo CPI to -.2% from .2% in March which is the leading indicator of prices in Japan have added to the Japanese yen owes today as it shows further persisting of the deflation pressure in Japan, in spite of the bank of Japan keeping interest rate at .1% again as it has done earlier yesterday in the face of this deflation and the current global recession.

Best wishes

FX Consultant

Walid Salah El Din
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