- Published: 08 July 2016
- Written by Jenny Rebekka
Within hours the Non Farm Payrolls Report will be released. This is the once a month jobs report that gives a clear picture on whether or not the economy is speeding up or slowing down. The stock market pays close attention to this number because the Federal Reserve bases a large part of their interest rate policy on it.
Analysts estimates range from 150,000 to 225,000. A number anywhere between 150,000 to 200,000 would be considered a goldilocks number and be very positive for the stock market. However, a number below 150,000 would be negative. Why? Because it would signal a slowing economy. Considering the Federal Reserve has almost no bullets left in their 'quantitative easing' gun, the markets would likely panic.
A -300 day on the Dow Jones Industrial average would be likely. Should the jobs number come in north of 200,000, the markets would likely be flat to lower. Why? Because it would be interest rate hikes back on the table for later this year. You would see a sharp spike in yields and the Dollar would shoot higher. A higher Dollar would put pressure on gold, silver and oil.
Ultimately, the market is hoping for that perfect number. Not too hot, not too cold. Somewhere around 185,000 would be perfect in my humble opinion. If that happens, the S&P could head to 2120 or higher.
A few things to note: There will be 35,000 jobs automatically added into this number because of the Verizon strike being over. Also, pay close attention to last months horrid number in terms of revisions. Revisions up would be very positive.