Random Thoughts: Stimulus, Confidence, T-Notes, Dollar (yen)

It’s Thursday, the currencies are retracing again so we figured what better time than now to throw together some random thoughts on the markets, news and whatever else. Enjoy!

Stimulus in the Headlines
Bloomberg.com is guiltiest here, as they seem to have a strict model used in formulating their headlines and stories. Anyway, it’s starting to get annoying when everything “positive” coming out of China is credited to the government’s “stimulus”. Sure, some items have been directly or indirectly influenced by the stimulus, but to the extreme degree with which it is painted by reporters?

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Financial Climate Change: Debatable?

Climate change -- it’s taken on a meaning beyond the literal. It is “global warming” ... it is carbon emissions ... it is saving the planet ... it is ridiculous.

For one, the attention this yet-to-be-proven phenomenon receives from non-scientists (read: politicians) is remarkable. And it makes me wonder: are they this devoted to preventing financial climate change too?

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Beware of Falling BRICS

The BRIC countries which include Brazil, Russia, India, and China are talked about as if they are some monolithic grouping that will carry the world out of the great depression we seem to be now mired. But monolithic this group is not. And more importantly, their collective demand is not enough to do the trick even if they were a real block moving together.

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Come On ... Who Sells Dollars Ahead of July 4th?

By the looks of it, traders might actually be respecting the holiday commemorating US Independence. The dollar is positive on the day so far.

Over the last week or so the currencies have struggled to carve out any sustained direction – the moves have amounted mostly to a whole bunch of sideways chop.

But the upshot of range-trading is that it often sparks sustained moves, in one direction or another, that can more clearly be targeted for potential profit.

Which way will we come out of this? Obviously, that remains to be seen.

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Lot of “key days” yesterday or just more head fakes?

A key day reversal is defined by Stockcharts.com as “a one day chart pattern where prices sharply reverse during a trend. In an uptrend, prices open in new highs and then close below the previous day's closing price. In a downtrend, prices open lower and then close higher. The wider the price range on the key reversal day and the heavier the volume, the greater the odds that a reversal is taking place.”

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